NOAA Predicts Drier Than Normal Winter for NE Ohio
By: Tom Wilkes
for the Stark County Weather Center, Canton, OH.
November 7, 2009
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U.S. Climate Prediction Center says El Nino will have little influence on the upcoming 2009/2010 winter season in Northeast Ohio
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a dryer-than-normal 2009/2010 winter for Stark County and all of Northeast Ohio.
The long-range forecast, released in mid October, also predicts that temperatures have equal chances of being either higher or lower for the period December through February.
While El Nino is expected to strengthen and become the major factor with regards to winter weather in most of the U.S., winter weather in Northeast Ohio is chiefly governed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a weather phenomenon that influences the jet stream, which has a great effect on weather patterns in the northeast.
The NAO is difficult to predict more than 2 weeks in advance, according to Mike Halpert of the Climate Prediction Center.
“The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country,” said Halpert. “And, other climate factors are also likely to play a role in the winter weather at times across the country.”
Even as such, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting drier-than-average conditions this winter for the Ohio Valley region. That means less snow, ice, and freezing rain for Northeast Ohio - certainly good news for Stark County drivers and residents.
Forecasting winter temperatures for the region proves to be much more difficult to pinpoint. The Center predicts a nearly equal chance that temperatures in Northeast Ohio this winter will be above, at, or below normal.
Seasonal outlooks do not predict where and when snowstorms may hit, or the total seasonal snowfall forecasts. Snow factors are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.
